The Drunk Diplomat

Without a preemptive strike on North Korea by the United States and South Korea Pyongyang could do some serious damage if this article from Foreign Policy is correct. I found this quote particularly intriguing.

As for North Korea’s Special Operations Forces (SOFs), South Korean estimates now place their numbers at as many as 180,000 men. North Korean SOFs are probably among the best- trained, best fed, and most motivated of all the forces in their military. They routinely undergo intense training that includes carrying 50 pounds of sand for 10 km in one hour, hiking in extreme cold weather, martial arts methodologies that include fighting with three to 15 opponents, and even using spoons and forks as weapons. Troops also engage in intense marksmanship training and even daily knife-throwing training. They can attack quickly, reaching key nodes in South Korea by aircraft, through tunnels in the DMZ, or even by maritime vessel.

Interesting stuff, I would still take the South Korean and U.S. military over the North any day, but it is often overlooked that the North takes its military readiness seriously. The entire country isn’t starving and it’s citizens have been brain washed for over 50 years, so I could perceive a situation where the North’s aristocracy get the army riled up and ready to fight like a Kamakazi pilots, 1,000,000 strong.

I am not arguing for a preemptive attack on North Korea, but it is terrifying to think the North has the power to completely decimate a country with the 15th highest GDP in the world and kill millions on a whim. No one knows the politics or mental stability of Kim Jong Ill’s son, Kim Ill su, the perceived successor. However, as a 26 year old kid, he will probably be influenced by the North Korea aristocracy, therefore, his top priority will be to maintain the North Korean regime, which rules out any kind of attack on the South.

Let’s hope the Obama administration does not underestimate the North Koreans.

Source:
Is North Korea a Paper Tiger?
Bruce Bechtol
Foreign Policy, June 2009

The big news today is that Kim Jong Ill has supposedly chosen his son Kim Jong un to be the next leader of North Korea. The kid, errr, Dear Leader, is only 26 years old. The question confronting us now is: will we let another generation of North Korean’s suffer torture, repression, brain washing, etc. under the new Dear Leader? The options still seem grim. Ideally the United States wants a unified Korean peninsula. With a unified Korean peninsula the threat of a war on the Korean peninsula is completely reduced, as well as, the threat of nuclear proliferation, and possible attacks on Japan and the West Coast of the United States. The United States would still have a foot print in the region for balance, but I hardly doubt the Korean’s would let us have 35,000 troops on the peninsula like we do now if there is a unified Korea.

The regime is fundamentally flawed like the old Soviet Union, so it seems that eventually it will implode, but what happens when it does is the big question. In my opinion, realism towards North Korea means 3 things.

1) A Preemptive military strike by the United States is out of the question.

2) Bargaining with South Korea and China to increase pressure on the regime, put helping with a future refugee crisis, monetary incentives, food aid, energy aid, humanitarian aid, etc. on the table – even a semi-Marshall Plan for the new unified peninsula may sound good. Assure the Chinese that the United States will not have a major military presence on their border if the North Korean regime crumbles. Assure the South Korean’s the United States will provide massive aid for the unification of the country and bringing equanimity between the North and South.

3) The United States cannot trust the North Korean’s to dismantle its nuclear program, it just will not happen. The Nuclear program is the “ace in the hole” for the North Koreans.

The United States must find a way to infiltrate North Korea and find a weak spot in the regime. Unfortunately, the best actions may be no action. The U.S. may have to view North Korea as a “castle siege” and continue to squeeze the country of food, energy, and technology aid. There are no good options in this scenario. Any preemptive military action, even if greatly successful, will result in the destruction of Seoul and possibly Tokyo. The U.S. cannot afford to be seen as a the instigator in any conflict with the North Korean’s especially if our allies will be taking the brunt of the damage from North Korea artillery and missiles.

The North has warned the United States about “illegally searching” it’s ships as a pretext for war. I would call their bluff on this one. As we cannot preemptively attack the North, they will not attack South Korea or Japan because we will flatten their country, and they know this. If the United States, in conjunction with our allies, believes that the North Koreans are proliferating nuclear material then we must take action to halt that proliferation. However, this action must be done tactfully and always in conjunction with South Korea and Japan. The United States cannot be viewed as taking unilateral action against North Korean vessels.

More to come…

Source:
N. Korean Leader’s Youngest Son Named Successor
Blaine Harden
June 2, 2009