The Drunk Diplomat

I’m currently reading Cobra II, a book about the build up and eventual invasion of Iraq by the Bush administration. Even though I read about foreign policy on a daily (hourly really!) basis I sometimes find myself forgetting that the U.S. still has 130,000 troops in Iraq, as well as, 70,000 contractors, not to mention thousands of other U.S. government personnel from the State Department to the Agriculture department. As (former) President Bush stated in 2006 when he announced the surge strategy the main goal of the surge was to create stability so political compromise could be accomplished. Unfortunately, that goal has not been met. There is no national oil law, the status of Kirkuk is unknown, members of the Sunni awakening movement are being arrested by Maliki, Baghdad still has daily bombings, corruption is ubiquitous, the power and water service are still not at pre-2003 levels, Arab states still refuse to establish embassy’s in Iraq, and the list goes on….

Historians may look back hundreds of years from now and use Iraq as a case study. In the coming years an experiment that was initiated 6 years ago will come to a dramatic close as American soldiers begin to withdraw. After, trillions of dollars, the deaths of over 4,000 Americans, and the literal displacement and death of millions of Iraqi civilians – will a viable, free, stable, democratic Arab country actually exist in the Middle East? George Bush said it would exist, he also said Iraqi oil money, WMD’s would be found, and that Saddam was a major existential threat to the U.S. All lies, one can only be hopeful that the pessimists are wrong and Iraq pulls through… Is the glass half full or half empty? Because now is the time to start taking bets as American soldiers are definitely leaving en mass, can the Iraqi’s pull themselves together or will Iraq fracture? Will George W. Bush’s doctrine of preemptive action with a twist of nation building be successful?

I don’t know. The worst part about it, no one knows, not even the Iraqi’s.

Here are some things to consider:

1) Attacks have “decreased” but IED attacks and major bombings are still a daily occurrence, especially in Baghdad
2) National Iraqi elections take place in early 2010 – will Sunni participation be up? If the Shia faction lead by Nouri al-Maliki is the victor, will its legitimacy be honored by the loosing parties?
3) When American troops leave, will Iran or Saudi Arabia try to fill the power vacuum?
4) Will the Kurds cooperate with the Iraqi government about Kirkuk?
5) Will an oil law ever be passed?
6) Will Kurdish terrorists stop attacking Turkey and Iran?
7) Will fighting between Sunni’s and Shia’s flare up again?

And these are just the short term questions! There are too many for anyone to be certain what Mesopotamia will look like in 2 years, but think about 10 years! America may have just trained the most effective and leathal army in the Middle East and armed them with the best weapons on the market. It’s not talked about, but Iraq is not, by any stretch of the imagination, pro-Israel. How about another authoritative ruler comes into power in Iraq, allies with Iran, and goes on to wreak havoc on the Kuwaiti’s, Saudi’s, etc. Meanwhile the Kurds try to form their own state, bringing attacks from Turkey, a NATO ally, that in turn makes the U.S. choose between it’s NATO ally, Turkey, and the Kurds, one of the most pro-American people in the world. I still believe the Kurds secretly want their own state, just a FYI, the Kurds have their own oil law already, they fly their flag – not the Iraqi flag, and their are border checkpoints to get into Kuristan from Iraq – not to mention the Kurds are a Sunni, have been repressed by Arabs for over a hundred years, and have their own army. Sure smells like the beginnings of a viable state to me.

There are so many fractures in Iraq and so many unanswered questions it is impossible to see how the state will be intact in 10 years, but who knows! No one thought the surge would work and it did! Maybe I’m just looking to deep into the tea leaves…. I hope someday that I can visit Baghdad and tour the archeological remains of Babylon.